Betting on the Nᵗʰ favourite in Place markets
This report is based on UK and IRE horse racing Place markets that were available on BetFair between June 2013 and February 2023. Our access to these markets is possible through the BetFair Historical Data Licence. Only markets labelled "To Be Placed" are taken into account:
The report evaluates the performance of the following strategy model.
At 10 seconds after the beginning of a race, bet on the Nth favourite if its back and lay prices are no more than 30 ticks apart. The N is determined as the number of winning places in the market + 1. For example, if there are three winning places, the bet will be placed on the 4th favourite.
The bet must be placed at the last traded price. If it has not been matched, the market is ignored and its data is not included in the report. A bet is considered matched if the respective price of the horse increases to (for backing) or drops down to (for laying) the offered price.
The minimum market volume at the time of betting is £1,000.
We are looking at both BACK and LAY bets.
Market commission is calculated individually for each market.
Use the widgets below to include or eliminate markets that fit certain criteria.
Last traded price range
Choose the range in which the horse's bet price (last traded price) must fall to qualify for a bet:
- Select all - include markets with any last traded price;
- Less than or equal to 3.0 - include only markets where the selection's last traded price was <=3.0;
- Greater than 3.0 - include only markets where the selection's last traded price was >3.0.
Race distance (top 20)
Click on distance bars to include/eliminate races with that distance. Only the top 20 distances with the largest number of markets are shown. The triggers attached to this report allow you to configure up to 5 race distances (and you can add more on your own).
Number of Runners
Click on bars to include/eliminate races with the chosen number of runners (selections).
Number of Places
Click on bars to include/eliminate races with the chosen number of winning places. Only markets labelled "To Be Placed" are taken into account.
Average Bet Price
Average price at which a bet was placed (and subsequently matched). Remember that the strategy implies betting at the last traded price.
The amount you would win or lose if you backed or laid £1 on the Nth favourite in each of the selected markets.