We have analysed football games across different countries and leagues. The aim was to find the probability of the teams scoring at least one more goal in the last 5 minutes of the game. We looked at markets with a different number of goals scored by the 85th minute.

Probability of +1 goal

This is the probability of the teams scoring one more goal at the 85th minute of the match based on the selected set of games. The minute of the match is calculated approximately, as 103 minutes since the kick-off, with an expectation of an average 3 extra minutes in the first half.

Projected Profit/Loss

The Projected Profit/Loss shows how much you would win or lose if you backed £1 on Over x.5 goals at the 85th minute of the match in the selected set of games, with exchange commission of 5%. The Over x.5 goals stands for an outcome of +1 goal to the current score. For example, if the match score at 85' is 2-1, we are talking about betting on Over 3.5 goals.

To be able to backtest this strategy, you will need to have all Under/Over markets at hand, as you cannot predict which one you will need by the time of betting.

Country

Click on country bars to include/eliminate football games from that country.

League

Click on league bars to include/eliminate football games from that league.

Number of goals

Filter out matches with a certain number of goals scored by 85'.